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	<title>Comments on: Arctic ice weirdness</title>
	<link>http://dereksorensen.com/?p=116</link>
	<description></description>
	<pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 12:24:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Derek Sorensen</title>
		<link>http://dereksorensen.com/?p=116#comment-348</link>
		<author>Derek Sorensen</author>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Aug 2011 18:10:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://dereksorensen.com/?p=116#comment-348</guid>
					<description>A possible cause:

&lt;img src="http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201108061200_pal.jpg" width="600px" /&gt;

That image normally looks something like this:

&lt;img src="http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201108051200_pal.jpg" width="600px" /&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A possible cause:</p>
<p><img src="http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201108061200_pal.jpg" width="600px" /></p>
<p>That image normally looks something like this:</p>
<p><img src="http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201108051200_pal.jpg" width="600px" /></p>
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		<title>By: vergent</title>
		<link>http://dereksorensen.com/?p=116#comment-349</link>
		<author>vergent</author>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Aug 2011 19:10:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://dereksorensen.com/?p=116#comment-349</guid>
					<description>http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf/nowcast/icespddrf2011080618_2011080700_035_arcticicespddrf.001.gif

The navy is showing a large area of very rapid movement. A long open channel in sync with the orbital period of their satellite could explain it. The definition of "extent" for this graph is 30% concentration or greater. It could be that a large area just went from 30% to 29% due to ice movement. Other concentration graphs show a downturn as well, though not so big.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf/nowcast/icespddrf2011080618_2011080700_035_arcticicespddrf.001.gif" rel="nofollow">http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf/nowcast/icespddrf2011080618_2011080700_035_arcticicespddrf.001.gif</a></p>
<p>The navy is showing a large area of very rapid movement. A long open channel in sync with the orbital period of their satellite could explain it. The definition of &#8220;extent&#8221; for this graph is 30% concentration or greater. It could be that a large area just went from 30% to 29% due to ice movement. Other concentration graphs show a downturn as well, though not so big.</p>
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		<title>By: Derek Sorensen</title>
		<link>http://dereksorensen.com/?p=116#comment-350</link>
		<author>Derek Sorensen</author>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Aug 2011 20:54:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://dereksorensen.com/?p=116#comment-350</guid>
					<description>Bizarrely, the Antarctic is doing it too:


&lt;img src="http://websiterepairs.net/files/2011-08-07-antarctic-ice_ext_s.png" width="600px" /&gt;

Source: &lt;a href"http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png"  rel="nofollow"&gt;http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png&lt;/a&gt;

So, one of three things is happening:

1) The planet is experiencing a sudden and most definitely unprecedented instantaneous period of warming which is affecting both hemisphere's equally.  Pretty unlikely, I'd say - although if that is what's happening then it's unlikely to be due to anything we humans are doing.

2) Something is messed up with a satellite. I don't know enough about the flight-paths of the satellites involved, but I'd guess they are in an orbit which takes them over both poles, so a messed up satellite could give this effect.

3) Someone has gone wrong with the pixel counting software which is used to estimate the sea ice cover, either: a) there is a long-standing bug which has just appeared due to an edge case, or b) they've applied an update which has affected the counting algorithm).

My money is on 3b, although 2 is a possibility.  This doesn't necessarily mean it's undercounting now - it's possible it was over-counting before.  But either way, it makes it look as though "it's worse that we thought".

Hmm.  There isn't an important Climate Conference coming up shortly, is there?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bizarrely, the Antarctic is doing it too:</p>
<p><img src="http://websiterepairs.net/files/2011-08-07-antarctic-ice_ext_s.png" width="600px" /></p>
<p>Source: <a href"http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png"  rel="nofollow">http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png</a></p>
<p>So, one of three things is happening:</p>
<p>1) The planet is experiencing a sudden and most definitely unprecedented instantaneous period of warming which is affecting both hemisphere&#8217;s equally.  Pretty unlikely, I&#8217;d say - although if that is what&#8217;s happening then it&#8217;s unlikely to be due to anything we humans are doing.</p>
<p>2) Something is messed up with a satellite. I don&#8217;t know enough about the flight-paths of the satellites involved, but I&#8217;d guess they are in an orbit which takes them over both poles, so a messed up satellite could give this effect.</p>
<p>3) Someone has gone wrong with the pixel counting software which is used to estimate the sea ice cover, either: a) there is a long-standing bug which has just appeared due to an edge case, or b) they&#8217;ve applied an update which has affected the counting algorithm).</p>
<p>My money is on 3b, although 2 is a possibility.  This doesn&#8217;t necessarily mean it&#8217;s undercounting now - it&#8217;s possible it was over-counting before.  But either way, it makes it look as though &#8220;it&#8217;s worse that we thought&#8221;.</p>
<p>Hmm.  There isn&#8217;t an important Climate Conference coming up shortly, is there?</p>
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